Eight percent - David Wilhelm, Biden for President

During this presidential cycle, like previous presidential cycles, we are being inundated with polls and breathless analyses of these polls. These polls greatly influence what passes for conventional wisdom inside the Beltway...the sort of wisdom that led pundits of previous years to anoint future presidents with names such as Muskie, Hart, Dean and... well, you get the picture. There is nothing more fleeting than conventional political wisdom.

Early polling in the race for President -- especially early polling at the national level -- is virtually meaningless. And early state polls provide all the evidence we need to underscore this point:

A recent Zogby Poll found that as many as 91% of voters in New Hampshire said they could change their stated preference for President by the time the primary rolled around.
The most recent Des Moines Register survey of likely Iowa caucus attenders, published around a month ago, found that nearly 80% of those willing to state a preference said they might change their minds.

That's why the write-up of the Gallup Poll of 6/12/07 concluded, "It is much too soon to be talking about who will win the 2008 presidential election."

And that's why we should pay very close attention to this week's column by John DiStaso of the Manchester Union Leader, one of the most politically influential political columnists in America, where he gets at the larger truth behind recent polling of New Hampshire voters. That larger truth is this: the vast majority of Democratic voters are a long way off from deciding who they will support in this presidential election.

DiStaso interviews pollster Andrew Smith and writes:
"Despite the low number of undecided likely voters on who they support, poll director Andrew Smith stressed that nearly half the likely voters surveyed were not yet prepared to commit to voting for any candidate.Smith said participants were asked if they have "definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary, are you leaning toward someone, or do you have no idea who you will vote for?" He said that 48 percent said they have no idea who they will vote for, 43 percent said they are leaning toward someone and only 8 percent said they have made a final decision."-- John DiStaso, Manchester Union Leader, 6/12/07

I repeat: only 8 percent said they have made a final decision!! Presidential campaigns are not sprints; they more closely resemble marathons. There are ebbs and flows; runners that break away from the pack early frequently run out of steam at the end.

Caucus attenders and primary voters need time -- and will take time -- to get to know who the candidates are, what they stand for, and whether they are ready to lead our country during these perilous days. These voters will become increasingly engaged and serious-minded as election day nears. And as time goes by and as voters are able to compare and contrast the capabilities of the various candidates, Joe Biden will rise in their estimation and slowly, gradually, he will rise in the polls.

When it comes to substance, Joe Biden is breaking through. I firmly believe that Joe Biden has a very clear pathway in this race: he is the Democratic Party's acknowledged leader on national security during a cycle when America's place in the world is the issue at the forefront of people's minds; he is the only Democrat with a clear plan for how America can withdraw from Iraq with honor at a time when Iraq dwarfs all other concerns of Democratic primary voters.

We have had a very good month. The consensus of the presidential campaign watchers is that Senator Biden gained the greatest ground from the debates. We are picking up meaningful endorsements in all of the early states. We have strong organizations on the ground in Iowa and South Carolina, and we are building equally strong organizations in New Hampshire and Nevada.
Everywhere we go, one of the most frequent questions we get is, "What can I do to help?" There are two things every single person reading this email can do right now to help Joe Biden continue to break through.

Tell someone you know today to visit JoeBiden.com and read his plan for ending the war in Iraq without leaving total chaos behind.

Make a contribution to Biden for President right now. Every dollar raised goes towards keeping Joe Biden on the road, talking to crowds, and getting the word out about our campaign.

Thank you for your help,
David Wilhelm Former Chairman Democratic National Committee
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